12/24/2023 0 Comments Yu pan nwm2012), and snow storage and melt ( Berghuijs et al. 2010 Priest 2004), soil moisture memory ( Koster et al. Other factors that contribute to streamflow include groundwater contribution to the base flow in the streams ( Larocque et al. Precipitation is one of the major factors contributing to streamflow. The streamflow represents an integrated response of the climate, land use, topography, soil type, groundwater interactions, and human intervention in the hydrologic system ( Gochis et al. This study investigates potentially useful skills in seasonal streamflow forecasts that can be helpful for water resource planning and management, including mitigation planning for drought impacts. The results of this study can inform the development and improvement of the operational streamflow forecasting system. This study attributes a greater improvement in the streamflow forecast skill to the lag effects between the soil moisture and streamflow anomalies. In the boreal summer season, the initial soil moisture condition contributes to 65% and 48% improvements in the seasonal streamflow and soil moisture forecast skills, respectively. The contribution of the initial soil moisture condition is comparable or even higher than that of seasonal climate anomaly effects in dry seasons. This study finds that initial soil moisture condition is a major source of predictability for the seasonal streamflow forecast. The soil moisture variability is 46% smaller in the NWM compared with the SMAP data, mainly due to a weaker amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The NWM skillfully simulates the observed streamflow in the ACT basin. The study also compares the soil moisture variability in the NWM with in situ measurements and remote sensing data from the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellite. We have designed and implemented seasonal streamflow forecast ensemble experiments following the methodology suggested by Dirmeyer et al. The study employs the state-of-the-art National Water Model (NWM) and compares the effects of initial soil moisture condition with those of seasonal climate anomalies on streamflow and soil moisture forecast skills. This study investigates the potential predictability of streamflow and soil moisture in the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States.
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